Universities income could be down $10bn by 2020-23, unless its $19bn

Peter Hurley and Nina van Dyke from Victoria U model the cumulative losses in a new analysis of COVID-19’s impact on international student numbers.  The $10bn loss is based on there being no second semester in-take. The higher figure assumes no international in-take next year.

So, what is to be done:   Hurley and van Dyke propose three policy approaches;

* increase funding for HE and VET domestic places to cater for increased demand from school leavers not taking gap-years and people choosing study over unemployment in a weak economy

*  support for international students in the present crisis and “implement measures that support a quick recovery to international student commencements when travel bans are lifted.” (Nothing specific is suggested.)

* diversify funding models to support smaller/regional universities that missed the international boom. “The aim of any policy reform should be to encourage lively and creative learning spaces at smaller and regional universities, rather than propping up campuses that have low enrolments. It may also include encouraging international students towards rural and regional universities.”