The 4.1m jobs people will need to prepare for

There will be 4.1m jobs for Australians to fill over the next seven years, with strongest availability in professional (973 000) and management (570 000) positions. Some 54 per cent of the jobs will be those of people leaving the workforce.

The estimate is in scenarios presented in new research by Chandra Shah and Janine Dixon from Victoria U for the estimable National Centre for Vocational Education Research, using the VU dynamic computational general equilibrium model.

They suggest an occupational shift away from sales and towards professionals. The structure of industries will favour professional, scientific and technical services, health care and social assistance and manufacturing (ex vehicles) with lesser roles for construction, retail trade and public administration and safety.

“The experience of many countries suggests that labour market forecasts can form a basis for intelligent and informed debate, as well as support better matching of education and training with jobs,” Shah and Dixon propose.

The authors project ten occupations with the highest net gains and losses in jobs

Where the work will be (in descending order of growth): tertiary education teachers, accountants and auditors, analysts and programmers, engineers, architects and surveyors, sales, marketing and PR people, legal professionals, advertising and sales managers, fabrication engineering trades, mechanical engineering trades

Fields with falling demand (from best to worse): defence, policy and firefighting personnel, checkout operators, social and welfare professionals, health and welfare support workers, retail managers, child carers, school teachers, midwifes and nurses, personal carers, sales workers.


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