March YTD student data demonstrated a big swing from higher education to VET. The choices of students from India and Nepal are the reason

By DIRK MULDER

 Indian enrolments grew 22 percent from 2019, increasing market share from 14.6 per cent to 16.8 per cent.

Nepalese enrolments increased 14.2 per cent, maintaining a 14 per cent-15 per cent market share.

Indian student commencements were up 3.8 percent but with a big swing from HE to VET while Nepal rose steadily by 8.5 percent.

The winning states for Indian enrolments were South Australia, up 44 per cent, Tasmania, 60 per cent, Northern Territory, 73 per cent and ACT, 44.9 per cent.

The pattern is similar for students from Nepal. SA up by 41 per cent, WA 27 per cent, Tasmania 81.7 per cent, Northern Territory 293 per cent and the ACT up 155 per cent.

 In all cases VET drove the growth

Indian students: NSW 73 per cent, Victoria 60 per cent, Queensland 48 per cent, South Australia 87 per cent, Western Australia 71 per cent, Tasmania 88 per cent, Northern Territory 727.3 per cent ACT 58.7 per cent.

Nepalese students: NSW (down 11 per cent) and Queensland (down 23 per cent) lost out but everywhere else was up. Victoria 19 per cent, South Australia 36 per cent, Western Australia 16 per cent, Tasmania 74 per cent, Northern Territory 504 per cent and ACT 72 percent.

The courses that are popular and why

The four course areas popular with students from India and Nepal are; automotive engineering and technology, business management, cookery and hospitality management. Full figures, state by state are in Features this morning.

While there may be all sorts of reasons, Australian and New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations (ANZCO) skill shortage occupation codes reveal these course areas qualify for an occupation on the medium to long term or short term skills lists.

Students are enrolling in these programs and will likely access the 485 graduate work visa in the graduate skills category on completion of 2 years of study. This will allow them to stay on, providing they meet requirements, for an additional 18 months. In some cases, students will be able to utilise this time to gain relevant experience in the nominated occupation which will serve them well when applying for a skills assessment leading to a more permanent visa.

There is also potential for state / territory governments to nominate students for the 491 or 190 visa categories, if they can present a full skills assessment and their nominated occupation is on the relevant state/territory skills shortage list.

But how realistic is it that these students will find the relevant work experience in the allotted timeframe to enable a positive skills assessment for PR? In some cases, this could require 12months work, out of 18, in the designated field.

Certainly, enrolments in these programs are intended to support a migration outcome however the system is extremely complex and many of the paths that these students are on will inevitably lead to a non-desired outcome. This will start to bite approximately 12 to 24 months from now.

Stats by states and fields are in Features this morning

Dirk Mulder is CMM’s international education correspondent