In Features this morning Frank Larkins and Ian Marshman explain how analysts (including them) were wrong on the pandemic’s impact on public university finances

Despite predictions of Covid causing $8bn losses in 2020-21 the public university system emerged from the peak pandemic years in better shape than in 2019.

While total revenues were $36.5bn in 2019 they were $38.89bn in 2021.

Certainly international student income was down, $1.2bn over 2019-21 but what was not anticipated by analysts was universities stronger starting position immediately prior pandemic. Plus other income streams were strong, higher domestic enrolments, the $1bn in Commonwealth one-off research support, and windfall revenue from the sale of system-owned international student services provider IDP.

“With the benefit of hindsight, it is evident that as a sector Australian universities have been very successful in managing the financial challenges faced during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis from 2019 to 2021. The primary focus on overseas students overlooked the potential for other compensatory revenue-raising streams,” they write, HERE

As to what 2022 was like, the figures , “will continue to be strong, but perhaps with limited revenue growth given the special one-off financial factors in 2021.”