The English soccer season started Saturday (it runs until forever) but Uni Adelaide petroleum scientist Steve Begg already predicts a 36 per cent chance that last season’s Premier League winner Manchester City will win again

“How does he know?”, you sing from the stands. “Uncertainty modelling,” supporters chant across the pitch. Professor Begg runs 100 000 simulations of the season “constrained” by the results in the last ten. It’s the same sort of science he uses in researching decision-making in oil and gas.