by Frank Larkins

 Recent media reports that universities have experienced up to 27,000 staff jobs in a single year represent a significant overestimate of the actual expected outcome.

An analysis based upon recently released Department of Education Skills and Employment staff statistics reveals that the job loss figure over two years to March 31 2021 is closer to 11,100 full time equivalent staff (FTE), including casuals, or 16,300 persons (head count), well short of the 27,000 figure currently being quoted by some commentators.

The census date for universities reporting staff statistics is March 31 of each year. Any staff changes after March 31 2021 in a given year are not included until the following year in the published data set. There is a consistent year-on-year data set available for trend analyses.

A summary of the analysis undertaken in this study is presented in the table.

University Full-Time Equivalent and Person Numbers Staff Changes from 2019 to 2020 and from 2020 to 2021 with the two-year cumulative total from 2019 to 2021
FTE	FT & FFT	Casual	Total	Persons	FT & FFT	Casual	Total
2020-2019	4,152	-4,258	-106	2020-2019	4,627	-4,782	-155
2021-2020	-7,984	-3,054	-11,038	2021-2020	-9,050	-7,065	-16,115
Cumulative Total	-3,832	-7,312	-11,144	Cumulative Total	-4,423	-11,847	-16,270

FTE: Full-Time Equivalent, FT&FFT: Full-time and Fractional Full-time Staff

Source: https://www.dese.gov.au/higher-education-statistics/staff-data/selected-higher-education-statistics-2021-staff-data

The primary data used to determine these staff changes are given in the appendix. It is noteworthy that actual FT & FFT staff numbers increased by more than 4,000 on both an FTE (4 152) and persons basis (4 627) from 2019 to 2020 prior to the main impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This employment trend was reversed in a major way from 2020 to 2021 with FT & FFT staff decreasing by near 8,000 on an FTE basis and 9,000 on a person basis. The net outcome over the two-year period was that the actual FT & FFT FTE numbers decreased by 3,832 and the person numbers by 4,423.

The profile for casual staff changes is somewhat different. The 2019 and 2020 statistics are also actual FTE numbers not estimates. There was a decrease between the two years of 4 258 casuals on a FTE basis. The net result for staff changes from 2019 to 2020 was very small with the reduction being only 106 FTE. It is noteworthy that collectively universities during this period increased full time employment for continuing FT & FFT staff, while reducing casual staff. This employment policy development of increased full and fractional full-time staff positions has been long advocated by the education union.

The Department of Education when it releases the latest annual university staff statistics provides the actual FT & FFT numbers for both FTE and person head count at 31 March, but only a best estimate of FTE casual staff numbers. In the following year the Department provides updated actual casual FTE outcomes for universities replacing the previous estimates. The Department does not provide casual person head count numbers.

Since 2018 the Department’s estimate of FTE casuals has been an overestimate of the actual FTE numbers reported the following year. For example, for 2020 the Department estimated casuals to be 23 946 FTE while the actual FTE outcome was 20 092, some 3 854 FTE less than the estimate. For 2021 the Department estimated the casual numbers would be 20 305 FTE. This number is more than the actual outcome for 2020. Given the decrease from 2019 to 2020 the 2021 estimate is unlikely to be correct. It would mean an increase in casual numbers from 2020 to 2021 of 213 FTE. This increasing trend is not being reported by most universities.

In determining the 2021 casual staff level the Department assessed that the 2021 FTE estimate would be 15.2 per cent less than the 2020 estimate. A more reasonable approach is to apply the 15.2 per cent reduction to the actual 2020 figure of 20,092 FTE. The 2021 casual estimate is then 17 038 FTE, some 3 054 FTE less than the 2020 figure and 3 267 FTE lower than the Department’s 2021 estimate. This is the number used in the table (see appendix below). Hence, the total staff losses from 2020 to 2021 are estimated at 11 038 FTE and the cumulative figure over two years at 11 144 FTE.

While the Department does not provide casual person head count numbers, there is a way to obtain a realistic estimate. In their annual reports Victorian universities do provide total staff statistics, including casuals, on both an FTE and a person numbers basis. This information has been used and published in an earlier CMM article. The Victorian data for 2019 and 2020 have been used to establish that the ratio of persons to FTE numbers in Victorian universities was on average 1.46. This ratio may be used to obtain a reasonable estimate of the total person numbers for Australian universities based on total staff FTE numbers. Since the FT & FFT numbers are known and the total staff numbers estimated, the casual person numbers may be determined as the difference (see appendix). The estimated changes are given in the table above. From 2019 to 2020 casual person numbers were reduced by 4 782 and those from 2020 to 2021 by 7 065. The corresponding total staff person losses were 155 and 16 115.

Over the two years to March 31 2021 the total casual person numbers were reduced by 11,847 and the total staff numbers by 16 270. Consequently, casual staff accounted for 73 per cent of the job losses. The 16 270 person figure is substantially less than the 27 000 person figure currently being used in some commentaries.

It is realistic to expect that for some universities there will be some net additional staff reductions in the period to March 31 2022, but not an additional 11 000 persons. The Universities Australia multi-year estimate of total job losses of 21 000 attributed to the pandemic may be a realistic upper limit when 2021 full year figures are included. The actual 2021 FTE casual numbers are unlikely to be released by the Department before October 2022. In the meanwhile, job losses of near 16 300 persons up until 31 March 2021 is the most credible figure to be used in commentaries. With international student enrolments in universities again increasing there is evidence that some restaffing, at least on a casual basis, is now occurring.

The primary FTE and Persons data used for the present analyses are presented below.

Australian Universities Staff Statistics 2019 to 2021

 

	Staff FTE Numbers			Person Head Count Numbers
Year	FT &FFT	Casual	Total	FT&FFT	Casual	Total
2019	112,705	24,350	137,055	125,787	74,313	200,100
2020	116,859	20,092	136,949	130,414	69,532	199,946
2021	108,873	17,038	125,911	121,364	62,466	183,830

Professor Emeritus Frank Larkins, is an honorary professorial fellow at the  University of Melbourne’s Melbourne Centre for the Study of Higher Education