The National Tertiary Education Union has crunched the debt numbers to demonstrate how HELP does precisely not that to new graduates chances of buying a home

The study’s worst cases (and they are grand on the gloom) are based on loan indexation and the previous government’s thumping increases to student contributions to business and HASS degrees.

“Our modelling shows that many students graduating under these new higher fees will likely take decades to pay off their … debt. It is inevitable that the number of people who are simply unable to pay off their debt over their lifetime will also skyrocket,” the union warns.

This is a big political problem for the government. Greens Senator Mehreen Faruqi has long been on the case and Dai Lee, independent member for the once rock-solid Labor outer Sydney seat of Fowler, has raised it in the Reps. But the government has no option but to stick with HECS as is. Concessions on repayments or paying a bigger share of Commonwealth Supported Places are not budget options – have you seen the price of submarines?

Plus there is the equity argument, that Education Minister Jason Clare made well on Sydney Radio 2GB yesterday. “If we were to make a change to this today, it would cost taxpayers money. It would cost the people who are your listeners, who may not have a university degree, they would have to cop the bill. And it would not mean one extra dollar in the pockets of students today to help with those things, like paying for food and rent.”

Lest anyone miss the point Mr Clare added,  “the cost of degrees is important, but the cost of kids in western Sydney missing out in going to university at all is a massive problem. And if I’ve got more money to invest in higher education, that’s where I want it to go, to more kids from poor backgrounds to go to uni.”

It could be an existential one for universities Universities Australia’s Catriona Jackson has been making the case for HELP since inflation pushed up the debt indexation rate, explaining how the loan system works well for individuals and Australia. She was doing it yesterday, on ABC Radio in Cairns, “we have a system that balances the contribution of the student and the taxpayer. We’ve been able to democratise and open up universities to a hugely larger number of people – that’s been really good for the country,” she said.

Ms Jackson also pointed to the previous government’s reductions in what the Commonwealth contributes to the cost of HASS and business degrees – leaving students to pay more.

But what never comes up in such discussions is why universities don’t reduce what they charge, lest prospective students decide degrees may not be value for money – and switch to VET, or do a course with Google or Amazon – or (way worse than any choice) not study at all.

If the price of study itself becomes an issue universities will have a lot more explaining to do.