by FRANK LARKINS
In a previous article it was reported that the university staff job losses over the two year period 2019 to 31 March 2021 were near 11,100 full time equivalent (FTE) staff including casuals, or 16,300 head counts. The FTE data while more reliable, underestimates the number of individual staff impacted. Nevertheless, it has been used for the present analysis based on FTE staff employments profiles by state using the same Department of Education data sets.
NSW higher education institutions (HEIs) had the highest number of job losses over the two years in terms of both absolute FTE numbers and the percentage of total staff terminated. Victoria and Queensland were the other two states most impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings are presented in the table using the data in the appendix. The changes in overseas student EFTSL enrolments are also included as this factor was the dominant driver for the staff policy decisions made by most institutions.
NSW HEIs collectively reported 4,500 FTE job losses over the two years representing an 11.2 per cent reduction in their workforce. Some 50.7 per cent were casuals and the balance continuing staff. (As discussed in the previously article, the 2021 casuals have been estimated) From 2019 to 2020 overseas student enrolments decreased by 9573 EFTSL, representing a one-year decrease of 8.2 per cent from 2019 with further reductions occurring in 2021. (The 2021 student enrolment figures will not be available until later in 2022 or early 2023). Interestingly, the NSW percentage job losses were greater than the overseas student enrolment losses with institutions evidently anticipating further softening of student demand.
Victorian HEIs had the next highest staff losses at 2,806 FTE of which a remarkably high percentage, 81.3 per cent, were casual staff. Total staff reductions at 7.5 per cent of the workforce were less than the 9.5 per cent decrease in overseas student enrolments. Victoria experienced the highest loss of overseas students in a single year of any state at 14 360 EFTSL.
Queensland HEIs reported staff losses totalling 2121 FTE representing an 8.3 per cent reduction in total staffing. Casual staff experienced the majority of the terminations at 68.8 per cent of all staff FTE losses. Queensland institutions had the highest proportional state reduction in overseas enrolments at 12.7 per cent (6528 EFTSL) and like the Victorians, experienced a larger proportional reduction in overseas student EFTSL than the staff losses.
Western Australian and South Australian HEIs experienced staff reductions of 7.1 per cent and 5.3 per cent with casual staff losses dominant at 57.9 per cent and 58.4 per cent respectively. Interestingly, overseas student enrolments in WA were 1128 EFTSL (3.9 per cent) lower in 2020 than in 2019; however enrolments in SA institutions actually increased by 2920 (11.8 per cent) from 2019 to 2020, so other factors have been dominant drivers of staffing policy in the SA reduction strategies.
Tasmania and ACU mainly offset their casuals staff losses by increasing FT and FFT staff, while the NT increased casual staff while decreasing FT and FFTE staff. NT did increase overseas enrolments by 287 EFTSL (20.6 per cent), while Tasmania decreased enrolments by 4.8 per cent and ACU by 7.3 per cent from small bases. The combined ACT outcomes are misleading as Australian National University accounts for the major changes with job losses of 289 (5.9 per cent) and overseas student losses of 1,776 EFTSL (21.3 per cent).
Full time Equivalent Higher Education Institution Staff Changes by State from 2019 to 2021 and Overseas Students Enrolments Changes from 2019 to 2020
| FTE University Staff Change 2019 to 2021 Casuals for 2021 Are Estimated | EFTSL Overseas Students | ||||||
| HEIs in State/ Territory | Full-time, Fractional Full-time FTE |
2021 Casuals are based on 2020 actual FTE -15.2% |
Total FTE including estimated Casual FTE | % Staff Losses to 2021 from 2019 base | % Staff Losses Due to casuals 2021 to 2019 | Change overseas students enrolments 2020-2019 | % Change overseas Students 2019 to 2020 |
| NSW | -2,218 | -2,283 | -4,500 | -11.2% | 50.7% | -9,573 | -8.2% |
| VIC | -527 | -2,280 | -2,806 | -7.5% | 81.3% | -14,360 | -9.5% |
| Qld | -662 | -1,459 | -2,121 | -8.3% | 68.8% | -6,528 | -12.7% |
| WA | -363 | -499 | -862 | -7.1% | 57.9% | -1,128 | -3.9% |
| SA | -218 | -305 | -522 | -5.3% | 58.4% | 2,920 | 11.8% |
| Tas | 104 | -129 | -25 | -0.8% | -307 | -4.8% | |
| NT | -62 | 14 | -47 | -6.6% | 287 | 20.6% | |
| ACT | 19 | -284 | -265 | -4.4% | -1,652 | -15.0% | |
| ACU | 93 | -90 | 2 | 0.1% | -267 | -7.3% | |
| Total | -3,834 | -7,315 | -11,146 | -8.1% | 65.6% | -30,608 | -7.8% |
Sources: https://www.dese.gov.au/higher-education-statistics/staff-data/selected-higher-education-statistics-2021-staff-data. https://www.dese.gov.au/higher-education-statistic
Sector-wide the job terminations over the two-year period, at 11 146 FTE, represented a loss of 8.1 per cent of the workforce, with casuals accounting for 65.6 per cent of the staff reductions. The action by HEIs was mainly a direct consequence of overseas enrolments decreasing by 7.8 per cent (30 608 EFTSL) from 2019 to 2020. Further job losses have occurred in 2021 in response to additional overseas student losses. Reliable data to quantify this situation will not be available until late 2022 or early 2023.
A more detailed analysis of individual HEIs most impacted will be profiled in the next article
Appendix Australian Higher Education Institution Staff and Overseas Statistics
| 2019 Staff with Actual FTE | 2021 Staff with Est Casuals | EFTSL | ||||||||
| Full-time, Fractional Full-time FTE | Actual Casual FTE for 2019 | FTE inc. Actual Casual FTE | Full-time, Fractional Full-time FTE |
Casuals based on 2020 actual FTE -15.2% |
Total FTE including Estimate Casual FTE | Overseas Students 2019 | Overseas Students 2020 | |||
| NSW | 32,687 | 7,391 | 40,077 | 30,469 | 5,108 | 35,577 | 116,888 | 107,315 | ||
| VIC | 30,291 | 7,044 | 37,334 | 29,764 | 4,764 | 34,528 | 150,469 | 136,109 | ||
| Qld | 21,154 | 4,440 | 25,594 | 20,492 | 2,981 | 23,473 | 51,220 | 44,692 | ||
| WA | 10,247 | 1,865 | 12,112 | 9,884 | 1,366 | 11,250 | 29,130 | 28,002 | ||
| SA | 8,194 | 1,737 | 9,930 | 7,976 | 1,432 | 9,408 | 24,679 | 27,599 | ||
| Tas | 2,662 | 374 | 3,036 | 2,766 | 245 | 3,011 | 6,342 | 6,035 | ||
| NT | 646 | 72 | 717 | 584 | 86 | 670 | 1,396 | 1,683 | ||
| ACT | 5,068 | 899 | 5,967 | 5,087 | 615 | 5,702 | 11,020 | 9,368 | ||
| ACU | 1,756 | 531 | 2,288 | 1,849 | 441 | 2,290 | 3,653 | 3,386 | ||
| Total | 112,705 | 24,353 | 137,055 | 108,871 | 17,038 | 125,909 | 394,797 | 364,189 | ||
Professor Emeritus Frank Larkins, The University of Melbourne
Honorary Professorial Fellow, Melbourne Centre for the Study of Higher Education