By DIRK MULDER

The March stats include first in-takes at institutions, using a semester timetable and are a good guide to what is going on

Overall commencers for all sectors grew by 2097 or 1.7 per cent against 2021 and are at 63.6 per cent against pre-pandemic levels (March, 2019)

Higher Education drove this growth and is the good news story, growing by 5909 or 9.7 per cent. HE is at 71.3 per cent of 2019 at the same time. Enrolments are down 45 483 or 14.3 per cent with 76.5 per cent of enrolments at March 2019.

Unfortunately, all other sectors commencers declined against 2021.

VET commencers were down 1217 or 2.8 per cent and 90.8 per cent of March, 2019. Enrolments were down 25 411 or 13.4 per cent, however enrolments are 102.8 per cent of 2019 levels at the same time.

Schools commencers are down 475 or 15.9 per cent and 37 per cent of March 2019. Enrolments are down 4188 or 33 per cent and sit at 41.7 per cent of 2019 levels at the same time.

ELICOS (Visa) commencers are down 1767 or 16.9 per cent and 28.3 per cent of March 2019. Enrolments are down 8942 or 38 per cent and sit at just 20.9 per cent of same time 2019 levels.

Non-award commencers are down 356 or 9.3 per cent and 20.7 per cent of March 2019. Enrolments are down 2524 or 25 per cent and are 25.9 per cent of same time 2019 levels.

Nothing is normal coming out of the pandemic

Higher Ed is probably what you would expect to see, growing commencements to start filling the bucket in the enrolment column in times to come. Higher Ed however is the exception.

VET appears to be starting to taper off from the strong performance during the pandemic on the back of strong Indian enrolment (CMM May 5, 2021). It maintains the strongest levels of any sector against 2019 at 90.8 per cent for commencers and 102.8 per cent for enrolments however with decreasing rates against 2021 of commencements – 2.8 per cent and enrolments 13.4 per cent is the one to watch.

ELICOS performance remains low. With 14,565 visa enrolments being registered for March 2022, it is 47.7 per cent of that in 2002 (27849). Optimism this will pick up over coming months remains and those in Higher Ed and VET will be hoping so, replenishing pathways is key to see growth rates continue and become sustainable.

Tomorrow: what’s happening in the states

Dirk Mulder advises education and business clients on trends in international education. He writes regularly for CMM