by DIRK MULDER

What the March enrolment and commencement data records and what is actually occurring are different things. On the basis of the latest numbers the crisis we know is occurring, isn’t

What happened in March

Overall year to date commencement numbers indicate the sector contracted 0.8 per cent overall. Non-award suffered the largest decrease of 7.5 per cent closely followed by HE down 6.3 per cent, followed by ELICOS at 4.9 per cent. The winners were VET up 14.8 per cent and schools up 1.9 per cent.

The data has puzzled many and puzzles further when March alone is examined.  Compared to March 2019 commencements were 2.17 per cent up. HE was down 4.68 per cent, VET was up 44.7 per cent, schools down 11.9 per cent, ELICOS down 3.2 per cent and non-award down 15.17 per cent.

But March 2020 was better for VET and HE than preceding months.

So what’s going on? CMM yesterday set out the reasons which are delaying reports of the slump in international numbers. But the official figures for March are not too bad – enjoy them while they are current.

Year to date on 2019 by sector

China overall is down 17.5 per cent. HE from China down 13.7 per cent, VET down 16.3 per cent, schools down 12 per cent, ELICOS down 34.6 per cent and non-award down 17 per cent.

India overall is up 3.8 per cent. HE is down 15.2 per cent, VET is the big winner up 65.4 per cent, schools up 10.1 per cent, ELICOS down 8.3 per cent and non-award down 15.4 per cent

Sri Lanka was up 7.9 per cent. HE down 0.8 per cent, VET up 36.9 per cent, schools down 30 per cent, ELICOS down 0.9 per cent, non-Award down 31.9 per cent

Year to date on 2019, by state

NSW overall is down 2.9 per cent. HE is down 8 per cent, VET is up 7.5 per cent, schools down 5.1 per cent, ELICOS down 4.7 per cent and non-award down 2.8 per cent

Victoria overall is down 3.4 per cent. HE is down 11 per cent, VET is up 19.4 per cent, schools up 8.5 per cent, ELICOS down 9.8 per cent and non- award down 10.5 per cent

Queensland overall is up 0.2 per cent. HE is down 2.3 per cent, VET is up 6.2 per cent, Schools up 5.4 per cent, ELICOS up 0.2 per cent and non-award down 8 per cent.

SA overall is up 14.9 per cent. HE is up 18.8 per cent, VET is up 46.5 per cent, schools up 1.3 per cent, ELICOS down 4per cent and non- award down 25 per cent.

WA overall is up 3.88 per cent. HE is down 0.6 per cent, VET is up 14.8 per cent, schools down 7.7 per cent, ELICOS up 6.7 per cent and non- award down 5.2 per cent.

Tasmania overall is up 12.2 per cent. HE is up 3.7 per cent, VET is up 40.8 per cent, schools up 4.1 per cent, ELICOS down 46 per cent and non- award down 12 per cent.

NT overall is up 93.2 per cent. HE is up 43.6 per cent, VET is up 167 per cent, schools up 66.7 per cent, ELICOS up 30 per cent and non-award up 75 per cent.

ACT overall is down 10.8 per cent. HE is down 20.5 per cent, VET is up 36.8 per cent, schools up 12.1 per cent, ELICOS down 36.2 per cent and non-award down 5.1 per cent.

VET commencements continue to grow

The March highlight is continuing VET growth, up 14.8 per cent YTD across the country. Victoria is up 19.4 per cent, SA 46.5 per cent, TAS 40.8 per cent and NT up 167 per cent.

Courses growing more than 1000 commencements include: vehicle mechanics up 26 per cent, project management up 22 per cent, office studies up 7.7 per cent, marketing up 19.2 per cent, hospitality up 7.3 per cent, business management up 17.2 per cent.

Cookery repeats the big-increase in February (CMM. April 28). The big star again being cookery up 46.8 per cent.

Dirk Mulder is CMM’s international education correspondent