July international student data demonstrates China is slowing, the Saudi’s are back, and the Regional Scheme is delivering what was promised

 By DIRK MULDER

 The overall-outlook is positive in the July YTD numbers, compared to last year. Nationally,  enrolments are up 8.6 per cent and commencements grew 4.7 per cent. However, there are serious data swings that require deeper analysis. The key take outs are:

* China is slowing and it’s concerning. Across the nation Chinese commencements are down 7.5 per cent, that’s 7609 fewer student starting their studies. This is hardest felt in the NSW HE sector, down 24 per cent (5329 people). With some growth in VTE from China the net result for NSW is a drop of 14.1 per cent – being 5281 students down.

* The regional bonus point scheme appears to be doing what was intended, with three of the four states on the regional list topping the growth of commencements in the July YTD figures. The Northern Territory is at 43 per cent, Tasmania 33.2 per cent and South Australia  15.85 per cent.  The only state / territory on the list not to figure is the ACT which appears to be suffering at -15.43 per cent.

* The Saudi’s are back. Across Australia commencements are up 62.1 per cent, which means  an additional 1286 students commencing study, compared to the same time last year.

* The inconsistent state is Western Australia. While the HE sector appears to be recovering well (23.1 per cent growth in commencements) VET is down 8 per cent, the only one around the country to decline. Schools and Non-award numbers in WA are slightly down and ELICOS slightly up.

The full analysis is in Features this morning.

Dirk Mulder is an international education business developer, strategist and market analyst. Contact him @ [email protected]