Way before COVID-19 was a name, Angel Calderon (RMIT)  recognised trouble ahead for Aus universities. He sets out his thinking in a new paper

There is no other China: On international demand, he warned late last year that while, “the loss of a market the size of China’s could not be replaced by one single market”; “Australian universities need to diversify their international student recruitment away from traditional markets. He suggests focusing on middle income economies and countries with which Australia has forged strategic trading partnerships, including harmonisation and recognition of qualifications,” say Chile, Peru, Colombia and Mexico.

And not much young demand at home:  the 16-24 domestic commencing student cohort will grow by 1.2 per cent a year 2017-2030. “There is indeed a limited pool of school leavers to boost domestic commencing enrolments and universities across Australia face increased competition to attract school leavers.”

Where people study will change: In 2018 67 per cent of domestic undergraduates were on campus. On present trends, this will drop to 55 per cent over the next decade, with the balance around evenly split between on-line and multi-modal.

Which means: With flat domestic demand, largely funded by taxpayers, Mr Calderon suggests, “there are limited revenue opportunities in a competitive market environment.” He predicts universities are, “likely to confront;”

* tightened government financial support and increased student contributions

* emphases on outcomes-based and performance-based funding

* the need for improving access for low SES groups

* a focus on students’; wellbeing and ability to repay through the taxation system.

* missions – including who institutions serve and what national priorities they meet.

 Mr Calderon’s research was presented at the Australasian Association for Institutional Research and filed in January to the Australian Universities Review, where it is now published.