by DIRK MULDER

But improving student numbers are not consistent all over and demand from China is a worry

Returners

Department of Home Affairs data indicates that, as of February 4, 66,000 international students had arrived in Australia since mid-December. And a meeting of the Australian Universities International Directors Forum  heard Thursday that approximately 7,000 students are arriving each week now. However only 10 per cent are from China, Australia’s largest source country.

This is good news for a sector which has struggled over the past two years. Less so for China focused institutions.

According to Phil Honeywood, CEO of the International Education Association of Australia while this is good news, arrivals are not uniformly distributed. “Some universities that would have expected good numbers are receiving lots of applications but with surprisingly few converting to actual enrolments. Others are discovering that there is still an appetite for off-shore on-line study.”

“The sector is looking to second semester to provide clarity around substantive enrolment trends particularly out of China.”

Concern over work rights

The government dropped all restrictions on international students work rights on January 19, to be reviewed in April.  This was a significant policy shift which to this point has always prioritised study.

Mr Honeywood says, “with the largest number of students coming from the sub-continent, it will take time before we understand to what extent the recent uncapped work rights policy is acting as a major pull factor to come to Australia. Many institutions are also concerned about the impact that long hours of paid work outside of classes will have on students’ academic progress.”

Visa Assessment of Genuine Temporary Entry a concern

It seems not all of government received the email that Australia is open. Inconsistent GTE assessments, which lack transparency and risk Australia’s reputation abroad appear to be growing in nature, especially for English language study. All students must demonstrate they are only coming to study and they will leave at the conclusion. Visa processing officials assess this and can deny a visa if they believe the student is not a genuine temporary entrant.

CMM has seen anonymised assessments for applicants from a range of countries, including;

“given that studying the enrolled course requires a significant financial cost as well as the inconvenience of overseas travel, the applicant has not provided convincing reasons for studying in Australia.

“I place weight on the applicant’s potential circumstances in Australia. I note that the applicant’s spouse is included in the application. I find that having their immediate family in Australia with them reduces the applicant’s incentive to return at the completion of their studies.

“I acknowledge the applicant has personal ties in their home country in the form of their immediate family. However, I find these ties do not, of themselves, constitute a strong incentive to return home at the completion of the proposed study.

This is something the Association of Australian Education Representative in India (AAERI) has picked up on. In a submission to the immigration and education ministers it makes the case for objectivity in the GTE.

“In these challenging times,” AAERI recommends that there needs to be specific GTE requirements so that the communication with the student and their families is consistent and transparent. AAERI recommends clear and transparent GTE requirements so that the process is smooth. This will help reduce visa refusals and quicken the processing. It will also reduce erroneous visa outcomes.”

With decisions such as the above it is anyone’s guess if family members are an asset or a liability when it comes to GTE.

ELICOS as a lead indicator

English language tuition has long been the canary in the coal mine vis a vis health of the broader sector and it has been the hardest hit by falling enrolments due to border closures.

English Australia CEO Brett Blacker says “we are not quite at the point of ‘green shoots’ but the soil is presently being cultivated.”

He says “English colleges are seeing some students return however the down side to that is until a quantum is reached many schools will be running classes at a loss with perhaps as few as 5 students in a class.”

Blacker is optimistic that as we move through 2022 this will improve, and the sector will be at a ‘green shoots’ point sometime later this year.

Perhaps ELICOS is  no longer the canary in the coal mine but rather the seed of growth we should be looking for.

Dirk Mulder advises education and business clients on trends in international education. He writes regularly for CMM