by Dirk Mulder
Demand from four of the top five markets is improving, shame about number one
Over the past two days in CMM I analysed international student nation-wide sector trends (Tuesday) and how states are performing (yesterday) from the recently released March international student data.
It is the first insight into performance post the borders opening.
Today I look at country data – what happening and who’s coming back?
China’s commencers remain the largest figure with 28,354 being recorded. This is down 10 671 or 27 per cent on same time 2021 and is 50.3 per cent of same time 2019. (Remembering that in 2021 students studying remotely from their home country could be issued visas). Enrolments also remain the largest cohort at 132 997 this is down 29042 or 17.9 per cent on 2021 and 69.3 per cent of 2019.
India comes in number two for commencers and is closing the gap on China with 22 568. This is up 5,152 or 29.6 per cent on same time 2021 and is 81.5 per cent of same time 2019. Enrolments are down 17 980 or 18.4 per cent on same time 2021 and 85.7 per cent of same time 2019.
Nepal is number three. Commencers from Nepal were 13 001, up 5013 or 62.8 per cent with these commencing number being 104.6 per cent of that at the same time in 2019. Enrolments are down however, 3859 or 8.5 per cent being 89.1 percent of the same time 2019.
Vietnam is fourth. Commencers were 5518, up 759 or 153.9 per cent on same time 2021. These commencers represent 79.2 per cent of commencers at the same time in 2019. Enrolments are down 2121 or 10.6 per cent representing 80.1 per cent of same time 2019 enrolments.
Pakistan moves into the top five. Pakistan had 3769 commencers, up 46.8 per cent on same time 2021 and 118.8 per cent on same time 2019. Enrolments are down 474 or 3.7 per cent or 100.2 per cent of same time 2019.
Within 600 students of Pakistan are the next five top commencing countries of Philippines, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Thailand and Colombia.
Analysis
The obvious talking point is China. Of all the major source markets it, along with Hong Kong has registered decreases. Understandably, the ability for Chinese nationals to move, with relative ease, across borders is a consideration. Those institutions who have been all-in on China for an extended period of time must be looking at the current diplomatic relationship with China hoping the new government will be able to reset at very least the trade relationship.
With China showing signs of coming off the boil many eyes now turn to India, and it makes sense. It is the second of the two majors and appears to be growing. It’s population demographics and central tenets of education in society combined with the Indian government’s appetite to broaden its education policy to include foreign institutions ensure it will be a major student contributor to global education for many years to come. Understanding India and working within its sometime complex systems of government are key to success.
Nepal has risen quicken (62.8 per cent) in commencers on 2021. Many in the sector believe a high visa grant rate will see Nepal come under the magnifying glass from Home Affairs in coming months. So what’s the problem? There isn’t one , as long as students meet their visa obligations.
It’s not hard to see why the ELICOS numbers (CMM 14 June) are well below expectation. Key ELICOS markets are down in commencers against 2021: China (-27 per cent); Colombia (-24.8 per cent); Korea (-14.1 per cent); and Brazil (-24 per cent).
Major markets that are less than 55 per cent of what they were at the same time in 2019 include: Colombia (52.4 per cent), Korea (51.5 per cent), China (50.3 per cent), Japan (46.9 per cent), Brazil (36.2 per cent).
Dirk Mulder advises education and business clients on trends in international education. He writes regularly for CMM